Stoopid Stuff

In the National Interest

Lots of debate out there around diplomacy. Should we talk to Iran? Should we sit down with Syria? What can they do for us? What would we have to give them? I don't know about you, but I notice in all this a very serious disconnect. And it's not just the stupidity of refusing to speak diplomatically to your enemies. If you only talk to your friends, just exactly how are you affecting the outcome? But no, I'm talking about the underlying disconnect, not the obvious one on the surface. After all the things we've done and said, why would Iran or Syria want to talk to us? Why wouldn't they be delighting as we twist at the end of a petard of our own creation? Why would they want to help dig us out of a hole that is bleeding away our wealth, our prestige and our unity at home?

The real question here is about national self-interest. Now there are a lot of things this administration doesn't understand, from their oath to defend the constitution to successful counter terrorism programs to American Values. But I can't understand how it is that they can't see that America's interests don't always coincide with another nation's. And that nation's leadership is just as obligated to work in their own national interest as is America's.

Iran is surrounded by hostile nations, at least two of which have nuclear weapons. To assist America in advancing it's agenda and hegemony in the region would not be good for Iran. So to expect them to do it would be silly. But there are areas where our national interests do coincide, and if we can leverage those areas to advance our agenda, we have to accept that we are also contributing to advancing their agenda - the best negotiations are always win-win.

Condaleeza Rice likes to say it's not about changing regimes, but about changing a nation's behavior. It seems that when a nation acts in it's own self interest, and that interest differs from that of the United States, it is condemned by the American Leadership. This is immensely hypocritical in light of the behavior of the United States, such as military invasions of sovereign nations, kidnapping and torturing foreign nationals and threatening to bomb other nations. When a powerful nation behaves the way America has for the last five years, it is not surprising that other countries interests would diverge rather sharply from ours. One need only ask oneself how Syria's support for American activities in the Middle East would contribute to Syria's security, prosperity or status? Indeed, opposing the regional or global superpowers has been in the best interest of many small countries over the years. Most recently, Hezzbollah gained immense prestige by standing up to the Israeli military and not losing.

America's criminal actions in the Middle East have brought together two conditions that, when combined, have the opportunity to inflame the region and start a major regional war. The first is instability. Sunni, Shi'a, Kurd, Arab, Persian, there was a balance between the nations around the Gulf. Sure, they eyed each other with suspicion and distrust, but for the most part found a way to keep the dogs of war at bay. They had a common cause in the plight of the Palestinians, they had plenty of oil money with which to buy off political threats, and they had authoritarian, one party governments that could keep the most extreme dissidents silenced. But it was all built on a precarious balance, a self-enforcing stability. Nobody wanted to rock the boat to the point of capsizing. Then, like a bull in a china shop, the US pushed a huge military force into Iraq, and stayed as occupiers. Iran, Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Saudi, Egypt, Israel - every nation in the region had an agenda. The resulting instability has worsened, litterally unchecked, to the point where the Sunni nations fear the "Shiite Crescent", the Turks fear the Kurdish Separatists, and the Iranians are flush with power and influence. There seems to be little to prevent the violence from spreading.

On top of this instability is the sense of Us vs. Them that now pervades the region. The sects, the political groups, the economic blocs-they are all now fearful of losing their wealth and position. And in the violence, bloodshed and mistrust engendered by America's ill-advised foray into imperialism, they see fewer and fewer options to war. Underneath it all are the Muslim Fundamentalists, appealing to people who have been unrepresented for decades, who have not seen the oil wealth translate to a higher standard of living for them or better economic opportunity for their childeren.

Let's admit upfront that the "Spreading Democracy" justification for American Military occupation on the oilfields is a lie. We know it, it just doesn't pass the smell test. Here's a government that won't help Palestine, won't help Haiti, won't help with poverty or oppression anywhere in the world, except, of course, if it can help protect America's access to petroleum. But its appropriate we consider the consequences of a half-hearted and half-assed attempt to create a functioning democracy at the point of a gun. First, democracy is more than voting. Indeed, voting can put a majority in power overnight, but that seldom results in anything resembling what you or I might call democracy. There needs to be a functioning economy and an established respect for the rule of law within a society before constitutional democracy is anything more than words on parchment. And in the case of Iraq, where the majority had been oppressed and held at bay by a minority by means of fear, violence and intimidation, and suddenly that majority population is allowed to go directly from the battlefield to the ballot box, you achieve the well known "Tyrany of the Majority". This is not going to be a democracy, this is going to be a dictatorship with voting.

Of course America should talk to it's enemies. It should talk to everyone, regularly, just to see what might be accomplished by means other than breaking their stuff and killing their people. But do not be surprised if they are hesitant to talk to us.

posted by mikey @ 8:28 AM